Over the last decade, micromobility has gone from novelty to infrastructure.

What started as a wave of dockless scooters flooding cities in 2018 has evolved into a more disciplined, operationally mature industry. Today, shared micromobility is embedded in urban transport systems across Europe, North America, and parts of Asia. But the story is far from over.

In a recent conversation with Kersten Heineke, Partner and Co-Lead at the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility, we unpacked how the industry transformed and what comes next.

This is the state of micromobility in 2026 and beyond.

The Boom Years: Growth at All Costs

Between 2018 and 2020, capital was abundant. Venture funding flowed freely into mobility startups, and the dominant strategy was clear: expand fast, capture territory, and worry about economics later.

Scooters were deployed in massive numbers. Operators entered dozens of cities simultaneously. The objective was scale, not profitability.

The assumptions at the time were bold:

• Urban car trips would shift rapidly to micromobility
• Cities would allow largely unregulated expansion
• Vehicle lifespans would improve quickly
• Market leadership would translate into long-term defensibility

Some of these assumptions proved right. Others did not.

Interest rates rose. Capital became scarce. Cities introduced fleet caps and tenders. Investors shifted focus from growth to unit economics.

The industry had to reset.

The Present: Operational Discipline

Today’s micromobility landscape looks very different.

The conversation is no longer about how many cities an operator can enter. It is about total cost of ownership, vehicle durability, and profitability per ride.

Several structural changes define the current era:

1. Hardware Optimization

Early scooters were fragile and short-lived. Modern vehicles are built for longevity. Battery swapping became standard. Repairability improved. Components were redesigned for ruggedness.

Operators now optimize for lifetime value rather than rapid deployment.

2. City Collaboration

The early phase was chaotic. Scooters appeared overnight in many cities.

Now, tenders and regulated frameworks dominate. Operators compete for limited licenses. Fleet caps are common. Parking zones are enforced.

While more controlled, this phase also created stability and legitimacy.

3. User Behavior Maturity

In the early days, scooters were often used recreationally. Today, the primary use case is commuting.

Shared micromobility is replacing short urban car trips, especially first and last mile connections to public transport. In cities like Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris, and Berlin, scooter parking zones near office towers fill up during morning peak hours.

The novelty phase is over. Micromobility is part of daily life.

The $340 Billion Question

McKinsey projects that micromobility could represent a $340 billion global market by 2030.

What does that actually mean?

The number is not just about scooters. It includes:

• Shared e-scooters
• Shared and owned e-bikes
• Cargo bikes
• Mopeds
• Quadricycles
• Microcars

The modeling looks at total trips in urban environments and estimates which share could realistically shift to micromobility, based on distance, weather, demographics, infrastructure, and use cases.

Europe, with shorter distances and better cycling infrastructure, shows particularly strong potential. Regions with weaker public transport and high car dependency also represent large opportunity zones.

But capturing that market requires two things:

1. Infrastructure expansion
2. Continued behavioral change

Both are underway, but neither is guaranteed.

The Next Form Factor

One of the most interesting developments in micromobility is the emergence of microcars and quadricycles.

Vehicles like the Citroën Ami, Opel Rocks-e, and Microlino are small, lightweight urban vehicles that sit somewhere between a car and a scooter. They are not replacements for bicycles. They are potential replacements for short urban car trips.

The key distinction is use case.

• A scooter replaces a solo short commute.
• A cargo bike replaces short errands.
• A microcar replaces the second household car.

The next five to ten years will likely bring further experimentation in vehicle design. We have not yet seen the defining “iPhone moment” for urban micro vehicles.

As infrastructure improves and cities prioritize space efficiency, these smaller vehicles may become increasingly attractive.

The Platform Question

Another unresolved issue is integration.

Should micromobility operators remain standalone businesses?
Or should they be deeply integrated into larger mobility platforms?

Uber acquired Jump and later divested it. Bolt built its own micromobility fleet. Lyft operates large station-based bike systems.

There is no universal answer.

From a consumer perspective, integrated platforms make sense. One app. One payment method. Multiple transport options.

From a capital allocation perspective, owning hardware-heavy fleets is challenging for asset-light platform companies.

The industry has not yet settled on a final model. But over the next decade, expect deeper integration between ride-hailing, public transport, micromobility, and eventually autonomous fleets.

Autonomy Changes Everything

Looking forward, the biggest structural shift may not come from scooters or bikes. It may come from autonomous vehicles.

Today’s robotaxis look like conventional cars without drivers. But long term, that likely changes.

If average vehicle occupancy remains close to one person per trip, then large SUVs are inefficient urban tools. Purpose-built two-seater autonomous pods could become the default urban vehicle.

This creates a fascinating convergence:

• Micromobility shrinks vehicles for efficiency.
• Autonomy removes the need for driver controls.
• Urban infrastructure increasingly prioritizes compact transport.

In that world, the distinction between microcar and autonomous pod begins to blur.

The transition will take time. Robotaxi fleets must scale. Economics must stabilize. But by the early to mid 2030s, purpose-built urban autonomous vehicles are likely.

Micromobility companies that think ahead may find opportunity in this convergence.

What Happens Next

For founders, investors, and policymakers, the message is clear:

The industry has completed its stabilization phase. Now it must re-enter its innovation phase.

Operational excellence is no longer optional. It is baseline. The next wave will come from:

• New vehicle categories
• Platform integration
• Smarter infrastructure
• Autonomous convergence
• More ambitious urban policy

Micromobility has already reshaped cities. Protected bike lanes are expanding. Car-free zones are increasing. Public perception has shifted.

The next decade will determine whether micromobility remains a complementary mode or becomes a foundational layer of urban transport.

The opportunity is still massive. But capturing it requires bold thinking again.

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