When Micromobility Attacks

The presentation “When Micromobility Attacks” is available for download from Slideshare. This presentation was delivered at the Micromobility Summit in Copenhagen. An updated version will be delivered at Micromobility California.

The paper it draws upon has been accepted for presentation at the 2019 Transportation Research Board Annual meeting

To summarize, if we categorize modes of transport by the distances they are used to travel, it is possible to compare modes and also to assess their likely competitive positions. In addition, we can quantify the addressable markets in terms of trips, distance traveled (VMT) and value (e.g. dollars) as well as time spent.

If we cluster micromobility modes together, their total addressable market reaches a point of “parity” with automobiilty supply at a given distance. In other words, there is a distance where half the value in a market (trips, distance, economics or time) is greater than that distance and half is less than it.

If micromobility can be diffused within that market then it can be assumed to strip trips, distance, value and time away from automobiles in a predictable way.

The challenge now is to determine the speed of diffusion and the point of likely saturation.

Horace Dediu